Will this winter be costly for consumers and brands alike?

Research by Belfius showed that the median energy bill for Belgian households rose by ‘just’ 4.4% in 2022, largely thanks to fixed-rate contracts and government support. The real energy shock was sharply unequal: around 10% of households saw their bills at least double. But consumer behaviour shifted far more broadly than that direct energy shock alone. Consumers traded down to cheaper brands, own-label products and discounters, while price and value gained weight in their decision-making.

The data from that period tell a surprisingly nuanced story. Not everyone needs to feel a direct financial hit to start choosing differently. The expectation that life is getting more expensive can be enough to compare more carefully, choose on value more often, and switch brands or channels more readily.

This is precisely what makes 2026 more interesting than 2022. While consumers have become more discerning, retail has also taught them that waiting pays off. Anyone who doesn’t buy today knows the next promotion probably isn’t far off. Consumers compare and delay their purchases; retailers try to win them over with ever-earlier deals; and competitors have no choice but to follow. The promotional window keeps stretching itself further.

Black November is not some external trend that simply happens to retailers. The industry has largely created that dynamic itself. It was once a single day. Since 2022, the peak on the day itself has been flattening in favour of the weeks before it. NielsenIQ put it neatly: ‘Black Friday is out, Black November is in.’

In 2025, revenue from consumer electronics during Black Friday week fell by nearly 3% compared to 2024, while November as a whole still grew slightly. Dutch transaction data show the same pattern: fewer transactions on Black Friday itself, but 27% growth in the week before. As a result, promotions now increasingly kick off around Singles’ Day on 11 November or even at the start of the month. The promotional window hasn’t shifted. It has expanded.

Place these movements side by side and an uncomfortable paradox emerges for retailers. On one hand, consumers facing real or anticipated pressure on their purchasing power become more price-sensitive, more critical and less loyal. They compare more, wait more often for a deal, and are quicker to switch brands or channels.

On the other hand, that same consumer is being courted by more brands than ever during the autumn. Black Friday became Black November, stretching not just the shopping season, but the advertising season along with it. On digital auction platforms, more competition for the same audiences typically means a higher cost for reach.

This is the autumn paradox: just when consumers are demanding more value for their money, retailers must compete harder for their attention. The obvious commercial reflex is to advertise for longer and offer higher discounts. But if everyone follows the same reflex, you end up amplifying the competition — not the returns.

The answer to that paradox is not to be everywhere for eight weeks straight. It starts with four questions: when does your consumer actually start buying? When does your category peak? When does attention for your audience become expensive? And when does sufficient margin remain after promotional and acquisition costs?

The answer doesn’t lie in a single date on the retail calendar, but in the overlap between demand, attention and margin: DEMAND × ATTENTION × MARGIN = YOUR GOLDEN WINDOW.

These three curves don’t look the same for everyone. Where your Golden Window sits depends on the game you’re playing.

For a discounter, uncertainty can create a tailwind: shoppers who normally buy elsewhere come to try the brand. The challenge then isn’t just conversion during the downturn. It’s how you turn a temporary downtrader into a lasting customer.

For a premium brand, that exact same consumer behaviour can be a headwind. The question is how you prevent value from being reduced to price. Brand communication becomes more important, not less.

For categories with clear decision moments — electronics, for instance — it can make sense to concentrate commercial pressure around those peaks. An FMCG brand has far less to gain from waiting for a single conversion peak and is better served by focusing on penetration and availability.

Anyone selling through retail plays a double game: building mental availability with the consumer while protecting physical or digital availability with the retailer. Built-up brand preference needs to hold when the consumer comes face to face with competitors’ promotions on the shelf or screen.

Brands that only start building when purchase intent peaks are trying to create recognition and preference at the most expensive moment possible. Brand building therefore happens before and after the Golden Window too. By consistently using the same brand assets and the same brand story, you build mental availability that pays off when the commercial moment arrives.

And even within that Golden Window, not everything needs to be about price. When consumers are choosing more critically and promotions are everywhere, recognisability matters more. Promotion can activate a sale, but the brand must ensure consumers choose you not only during the promotion, but after it too.

The Golden Window is not a synonym for ‘as early as possible’. For some categories, it sits before the November rush. For others, right at the peak, because higher purchase intent more than compensates for the higher cost of attention. And for others still, perhaps after.

That’s also why looking only at revenue or ROAS isn’t enough. More turnover during Black November can come with higher discounts, higher acquisition costs, more expensive logistics, or simply demand pulled forward from later in the year. The lesson? Find where demand, attention and margin align most favourably for your brand. The Golden Quarter is on the calendar. Your Golden Window is yours to find.